Indonesia’s palm oil production may shrink by up to 3 million tons next year due to the severe El Niño weather forecast for the coming months, according to an industry estimate, adding to upward pressure on prices. The decline is smaller than a previous forecast, but could still dent output by the equivalent of roughly 5% of this year’s total, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki. It sees 2026 production being similar to last year’s, when it reached 56.6 million tons.