US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's more activist style of managing the nation's debt has Wall Street war-gaming a potentially bigger shift in the government's borrowing strategy over the coming months. One radical option would be to cut sales of long-dated bonds, according to Deutsche Bank AG, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup Inc.

More likely, the Treasury could signal at its Nov. 4 quarterly refunding that future increases in borrowing will be done via bills and shorter-maturity notes, while further expanding buybacks to ease pressure on long-term yields. The approach reflects Bessent's willingness to intervene in market mechanics more than predecessors.

The Nov. 4 refunding announcement will be closely watched for signals on coupon issuance sizes and the composition of debt sales. Any reduction in long-dated supply could roil the bond market, where investors have already been digesting heavy issuance. Treasury officials have indicated they want to ensure smooth financing without disrupting market functioning.