Democrats have a clear advantage over Republicans with fewer than 50 days until the midterms, as President Trump has lost public trust on the economy, according to a new New York Times/Siena University poll. Likely voters favored Democratic candidates by nearly 9 percentage points in their congressional district.

Trump's approval rating remained at 38 percent among likely voters. A majority disapproved of his handling of every major issue: the economy, immigration, tariffs, the war in Iran, and especially the cost of living. Voters trusted Democrats more on health care, foreign wars, and the two issues that powered Trump's 2024 victory: immigration and the economy.

Independent voters have soured on Trump: only 10 percent said the economy was better than a year ago, and just 27 percent approve of his job performance. In congressional races, 57 percent of independents planned to vote Democratic versus 34 percent Republican. Even white voters without college degrees disapproved of his cost-of-living handling by a 21-point margin.

However, a Democratic wave is not assured. Gerrymandering limits competitive House seats, and a 9-point advantage may not flip Senate seats in Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, which Trump won by double digits in 2024.