A New York Times/Siena poll finds conditions for a "blue wave" in November's midterm elections may be forming. Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 43% among likely voters on the generic ballot, an 8.5-point margin that would nearly match 2018's 8.6-point Democratic win and exceed wave years like 1994, 2006, and 2010. Historically, the party out of power fares well in midterms, especially when the president is unpopular. President Trump's approval is just 38% among likely voters, lower than any president since George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's ratings are 31% on the war in Iran and 28% on the cost of living.

However, translating national advantages into Senate control is harder. Democrats must win at least two seats where Trump won by 11 points or more. In 2006, Democrats needed wins in states Bush had carried by eight points, and they barely succeeded, including narrow victories in Montana and Virginia.

The Times/Siena poll is just one survey, but it aligns with other polls, special election results, and primary turnout. Republicans may try to cast Democrats as too far left. Democrats have nominated broadly acceptable candidates in most states, but in competitive races like Michigan's Senate contest, they've picked candidates far to the left of 20 years ago. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialist candidates may have pushed the party left.