Under cover of darkness, Iran's Revolutionary Guards prepared to fire sea mines from Larak Island into the Strait of Hormuz. American forces spotted and destroyed the launchers, shattering a month-long lull in hostilities and triggering fresh tit-for-tat attacks. For weeks, mediators sought to revive a June memorandum of understanding to open the strait and resume talks, but the Trump administration refused to return to the MoU, pushing instead for a comprehensive agreement covering Tehran's nuclear programme.

President Donald Trump bets the US can ensure oil flow by protecting shipping while using naval blockades and sanctions to choke Iran's economy. However, Iranian leaders have threatened military retaliation, warning other Gulf producers cannot export if Iran is blocked. Diplomats and analysts say this stand-off is unsustainable and risks further cycles of escalation.

Ali Vaez of the Crisis Group warns that economic warfare may force Iran into a hot war. The White House declined to comment on deal conditions. Trump dismissed reports he was forcing Iran to the table, stating he "couldn't care less" if they sign an agreement.

The president's stance traces to August 22, when US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed the seven-day average of oil leaving the strait was over 8 million barrels a day. Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed the US had cleared all Iranian sea mines from international shipping lanes. Two days later, the US attacked Iranian forces on Larak Island, accusing them of trying to re-mine the waterway through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas passed.

The flare-up triggered two days of strikes, with Iran firing at bases hosting US forces. At least two tankers were attacked, and Iranian officials said a US strike hit a wedding celebration near Sirik, killing four and wounding dozens. Iran's top security official Mohsen Rezaei warned Iran's new strategy will shatter American foundations, while Iranians bear increasing economic pain from the blockade.