The success of the billion-dollar oil agreement between the Trump administration and Venezuela hinges on aging, deteriorated, or costly-to-exploit fields. The deal, reached last month with Alejandro Betancourt, a controversial energy tycoon, covers 17 fields and grants the U.S. majority control over a vast portion of Venezuela’s oil wealth. North American Blue Energy Partners, Betancourt’s firm, aims to more than double crude output by adding roughly 300,000 barrels per day within just over two years.

However, discussions with over a dozen industry executives and analysts suggest the company will struggle to meet that target. Bloomberg News identified the 17 fields, though the list has not been officially released. The agreement’s viability depends on revitalizing long-neglected infrastructure in Lake Maracaibo’s Zulia state, where PDVSA’s platforms show significant wear.

Experts warn that technical decay, underinvestment, and operational complexity may undermine production goals despite political momentum.