Carolina Hurricanes hold a 2-1 series edge heading into Game 4 of the 2026 NHL Eastern Conference Finals against the Montreal Canadiens. The Hurricanes, -153 favorites, need a win to secure a 3-1 series lead in what could decide the series. Montreal, +128 underdogs, aims to tie at 2-2. The 5.5 over/under reflects a high-scoring matchup, with SportsLine’s model projecting 5.9 total goals. The model, which returned +668 on top-rated NHL picks this postseason, favors the Over based on simulations of 10,000 games. Hurricanes’ Seth Jarvis (.40 goals projected) and Canadiens’ Cole Caufield (.50 goals projected) could drive scoring.

This series has been defined by volatility. Carolina’s 53-22-7 record contrasts with Montreal’s 48-24-10, but home ice has helped the Canadiens win 24-15-2 games. The model notes Hurricanes are 40-36-2 to the Over after a day off, while Montreal is 51-44-4 at home. With Jarvis and Caufield both projected to exceed .30 goals, the Over at 5.5 appears undervalued. The model’s accuracy stems from simulating every shift, not just outcomes. A win here would put Carolina in control, but Montreal’s resilience could flip the series.

The Over at 5.5 offers the clearest value, per SportsLine. Hurricanes’ road dominance (24-12-5) and Montreal’s home struggles (24-15-2) suggest a high-scoring game. Jarvis and Caufield’s projection aligns with this trend. However, the Hurricanes’ -153 odds reflect their status as favorites, making the Over a smarter play than the money line. For bettors, SportsLine’s picks provide actionable insights. The model’s track record—+668 returns—adds credibility. This series could hinge on one game, and Game 4 is shaping up as a pivotal moment. Fans should watch for Jarvis’ speed and Caufield’s clutch play, both critical to reaching the series’ projected 5.9 goals.