यूरोपीय गैस कीमतें: क्यों बढ़ाव टिक

European natural gas prices have surged to €88 per MWh, tripling since the Iran war began in February, raising fears of a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis. UK prices have followed suit, and gas storage is at record lows for this time of year, increasing vulnerability to winter cold snaps. Higher energy costs have already pushed Eurozone inflation to 3.8% and are expected to lift UK inflation above 4% by January.

Central banks are alarmed, fearing a return to post-pandemic inflation levels. However, the crisis may be less severe than it appears. Global LNG supply has only fallen 4% year-on-year, not 20% as often claimed.

While Qatar and the UAE lost export capacity, other producers offset most of the shortfall. Moreover, European gas demand is not perfectly inelastic — historical data shows a 16% drop in consumption when prices doubled in 2022–23. Elasticity estimates suggest demand falls by 0.1–0.2% for every 1% price rise.

Thus, while prices are high, they are unlikely to remain elevated without demand collapsing further — a self-correcting mechanism that tempers alarmist narratives.

स्रोत: Financial Times Companies · HeadlinesBriefing द्वारा सारांशित