Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway note that while hard data (like job creation and consumer spending) and soft data (consumer sentiment reports) once showed a notable divergence—strong hard data versus weak soft data—this gap is no longer remarked upon. The divergence has become normalized, making it unremarkable. Recent data shows solid manufacturing and durable goods figures, while the University of Michigan sentiment survey remains near its four-year low.

Weekly initial jobless claims (white line) continue to trend downward, with the 52-week moving average (magenta line) also declining. Despite high interest rates, AI job loss fears, and weak consumer sentiment, the labor market appears solid and improving. The authors suggest the steady employment situation is significant, even if unexpected.

They also briefly mention Hollywood’s struggles, linking them to changing habits and AI, but note its decline began earlier due to time allocation shifts, such as increased scrolling reducing movie attendance.