Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Geopolitics & Energy Markets Roiled by Middle East Conflict
Global energy markets remain volatile as headline-driven fluctuations and disrupted supplies continue to drive crude oil prices, with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz paralyzing tanker traffic and threatening flows of gas and fertilizers out of the region. Iran confirmed the death of top security official Ali Larijani, which briefly lifted oil prices, though markets later weighed Fed rate paths. As Asian refiners scramble to secure non-Mideast supplies, Europe’s airlines are eyeing a brief window to offer direct flights avoiding disrupted Gulf hubs, while Spain considers boosting pipeline gas imports from Algeria to counter price surges.
The conflict’s impact is profound across related sectors: freight rates have soared as the shipping market turns into a ‘wild west’, and aluminum prices, affected by the war, have jumped to a four-year high, though Chinese buyers are reluctant to take on the metal. In corporate finance, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. sought reconfirmation from Asian banks backing an approximate $1.5 billion Saudi loan deal, underscoring the perceived risks, while Goldman Sachs-backed trader InCommodities inked a deal for Australian battery storage valued at $141.5 million. Further complicating energy supply chains, Libyan oil flows were redirected following a fire and pipeline leak at the country’s Sharara field.
Political Maneuvering & US Domestic Issues
In US politics, President Trump’s decision not to endorse Texas Senators John Cornyn or Ken Paxton before the deadline forces their costly battle into a May runoff, while Democrats hammered the former administration over energy affordability concerns. Meanwhile, the potential for escalating conflict remains high, with analysts warning that Tehran’s ability to prolong disruption to Middle Eastern energy flows ‘has a way to go’, even as President Trump considers retrieving Iran’s nuclear fuel in a high-risk military operation. On the domestic front, the USPS warned it could run out of cash in under a year while seeking increased borrowing limits, and Amazon plans to cut its reliance on the Postal Service by two-thirds by this fall.
Political discussions are also touching on technology and social issues; researchers warn that AI chatbots may reinforce psychological vulnerabilities by validating delusions, while the FTC is preparing for potential scrutiny of corporate reporting scaling based on firm size. In Illinois primaries, Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic Senate nomination with considerable financial backing from Gov. JB Pritzker, while in the gubernatorial race, Mr. Pritzker faced no opposition in his Democratic primary.
Emerging Markets and Corporate Dealmaking
In Asia, Chinese firms are aggressively boosting foreign-exchange hedges as the yuan’s strengthening threatens exporters’ overseas earnings, while Hong Kong’s fundraising hub faces a potential slowdown due to intensifying regulatory scrutiny of share sales. In Malaysia, Sunway Healthcare Bhd. shares soared nearly 32% in their debut, raising 2.86 billion ringgit ($731 in the largest IPO in nine years, propelling the ringgit to its strongest level versus the Singapore dollar in five years, supported by high energy prices. Elsewhere, Elliott Investment Management LP has taken a “significant” stake in Japanese shipper Mitsui OSK Lines.
The global media sector saw movement as the proposed sale of Warner Bros Discovery assets could yield CEO David Zaslav a $700mn payday, while Paramount faces its own challenges post-deal. In the technology sphere, Chinese AI stocks rallied after Nvidia’s CEO stated that the Open Claw agent system is potentially the ‘next ChatGPT’, though a deepening rift with Microsoft is surfacing as Amazon weighs legal action over a cloud deal that may infringe on Microsoft’s exclusive hosting rights. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank is expected to reveal its resolve on the franc’s strength, likely avoiding more drastic measures like negative borrowing costs.
Private Credit and Sectoral Shifts
The private credit industry faces a prolonged “clean-up” process, according to Societe Generale’s CEO, as investors exit due to concerns over underwriting standards, a sentiment echoed by warnings that guardrails are necessary before these funds penetrate the $9 trillion US retirement market. This resetting appears to be ongoing, with Sixth Street suggesting the current intense reset in the $1.8 trillion sector may take years to resolve. In banking, JPMorgan halted a $5.3 billion Qualtrics debt deal amid growing investor nervousness surrounding AI disruptions, while HSBC is set to reopen the market for riskier Additional Tier 1 bonds with a dollar capital raise.
In commodities and mining, BHP named Americas Chief Brandon Craig as its new CEO to succeed Mike Henry, while Iraq and Kurdistan reached an agreement to resume oil exports via Turkey, offering some relief following Hormuz disruptions. In Latin America, Chile’s Arauco is prepared to skirt junk status as it proceeds with plans for the world’s largest pulp mill despite an industry downturn, and Apollo Global Management has made its first hire for a dedicated Singapore private credit fund targeting high-growth enterprises.
Regulatory & Specific Market Developments
European regulators approved Leonardo’s nearly $2 billion defense deal with Iveco Group without raising competition concerns, while the EU plans to delay the increase in bank capital requirements to mitigate short-term impacts on competitiveness. In the UK, the nuclear research body consults on cutting 200 jobs, prompting union questions about the government’s narrative of a ‘golden age’ for the sector. On the luxury front, Bentley is cutting jobs and scaling back EV plans as it contends with US policy shifts and slowing Chinese demand, while European investment firm GV has doubled down on Europe, anticipating a comeback for smart glasses.
The US auto market is seeing mixed signals: Audi forecasts improved profitability this year, aiming for an operating margin between 6% and 8%, while analysts are watching the sector for impacts from Nvidia’s autonomous driving partnerships. In real estate, the price gap in the UK between first-time homes and larger properties reached a record high, while in the US, landlords are leasing more space to service providers like gyms and spas than to retailers selling physical goods.