The US grocery market is experiencing a significant slowdown, moving beyond masked negative unit growth to a sharp decline in sales since February 2026. Despite prices increasing by 2% to 3% year over year, shoppers are buying fewer items, with units down approximately 2% annually.

This slowdown is attributed to a confluence of factors. A drop in SNAP participation and tighter eligibility rules in late 2025 and early 2026 strained lower-income households. Rising gas prices in March also impacted weekly budgets. These pressures compound existing consumer strain from a 33% increase in grocery prices since 2019, broad inflation, and declining disposable income.

Consumers are actively cutting back, with 80% trying to spend less and 28% reducing grocery purchases. Strategies include trading down to cheaper brands, buying fewer items, and utilizing more coupons. The rise of GLP-1 medications is also cited as a factor in reduced grocery buying. As a result, US grocery units, which were nearly flat in June 2025, declined by 1.8% a year later.

In this environment, value-oriented retailers like discount, mass, and club stores are gaining market share, with 22% of shoppers exploring more retailers for deals. However, overall unit volume remains a challenge for all grocers. Winning grocers will focus on a sharp value proposition, precise use of promotions, loyalty programs, and private brands to build consumer trust.