In a new expose, the Kobeissi Letter claims that roughly $920 million in crude oil futures shorts were placed just 70 minutes before Axios reported a U.S.–Iran “14‑point” deal to end the Iran War. The trade, executed at 3:40 a.m. ET, involved nearly 10,000 contracts—an unusually large early‑morning move that set the stage for a sharp market swing.

Oil prices plunged more than 12% by 7:00 a.m. ET, netting the shorts an estimated $125 million in gains. Minutes later, Iran announced the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” propelling prices up 8%. Repeating this pattern, large‑scale traders appear to exploit inside information ahead of presidential announcements, raising questions about market integrity.

The practice undermines the futures market’s core purpose—hedging risk for producers and consumers. When insiders trade on pre‑news, buyers may lock in inflated prices while sellers face unexpected losses, eroding confidence and discouraging participation. A weakened hedging mechanism could ripple through supply chains, raising costs for airlines, refineries, and ultimately consumers.

These repeated infractions highlight a broader erosion of trust in market institutions during the Trump administration. Without effective enforcement, traders can profit from privileged information, compromising fair competition and economic efficiency. The result is a distorted market that harms both businesses and the public, eroding the foundations of a competitive economy.