Citadel's head of commodities has warned that Donald Trump's social media posts during the Iran conflict have fundamentally transformed how oil markets operate, leaving traders scrambling to adjust to volatility sparked by the president's frequent messages. Sebastian Barrack, who has built Ken Griffin's hedge fund into one of the world's most influential energy traders, told the FT Commodities Global Summit that he maintains a dedicated screen solely to monitor the president's posts.

The early days of the Middle East conflict saw dramatic price swings as markets struggled to process the dislocation, with volatility in oil and gas increasing by roughly 300 per cent. Oil prices soared to nearly $120 a barrel in early March after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint carrying 20 per cent of global crude production. Trump later triggered massive sell-offs with posts about "productive" talks and describing the war as "very complete."

Barrack admitted that oil and gas traders "did a pretty bad job" sizing up the risk of major market dislocation from the conflict, despite it being a "well-telegraphed" threat with 50 to 70 per cent probability of occurring. Ahead of the war, Citadel struggled to find informational advantages, though the firm bet on rising prices for distillates including diesel and jet fuel.