Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury in Iran has jolted US inflation, pushing March CPI to 3.3%—the highest in two years. The conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, throttling a fifth of global oil flow and sending Brent crude from about $70 to over $110 a barrel. Economists warn the price shock will linger well beyond any cease‑fire, adding political pressure for the electorate.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said short‑term inflation expectations have risen, and the OECD now projects US inflation at 3.2% in 2026, up from a pre‑war 2.5% outlook. Diesel surged from $3.76 to $5.59 a gallon, echoing the 2022 record, while pump prices jumped to $4.08, feeding higher costs for trucking, agriculture and food retailers.

Households feel the pinch: a Texas retiree reports diesel hikes triggering broader price climbs, while the University of Michigan’s sentiment index hit a record low and inflation expectations rose to 4.8% for the year ahead. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the administration will monitor gas stations for rapid price cuts as crude eases, but elevated energy costs are set to stay embedded in the economy.