Peter Turchin's concept of elite overproduction describes societies with more potential elites than positions available, creating instability. First published in 2010, Turchin's model predicts social unrest by comparing it to deadwood accumulating in a forest before a catastrophic fire. While it cannot forecast specific events, it identifies probabilities and clarifies policy trade-offs.

Turchin links elite overproduction to political instability throughout history, from the French Revolution to the late Roman Empire. His research shows that when economic expansion creates downward wage pressure, elites resist redistribution and restrict upward mobility to preserve their status. This behavior exacerbates inequality and drives sociopolitical turbulence. The model explains why university graduates increasingly embrace progressive politics due to underemployment rather than ideological exposure.

Modern examples illustrate the theory's relevance. Canada's youth unemployment reached 14.5% in 2024, with the Bank of Canada calling it an economic emergency. Despite having the highest percentage of workers with higher education in the G7, Canada's productivity ranks near the bottom. Australia faces similar challenges, with administrative bureaucracies growing while academic wages stagnate. These patterns suggest elite overproduction is not merely historical but a pressing contemporary issue affecting Western democracies.