I’ve been tinkering with a theory for the past few months. It began as a playful data exercise looking at different taxes and benefits, I've used opus and later fable to pull data, then swapped assumptions back and forth.

The work ended up in two pieces: mine, a visual, anecdotal take with little math, and fable’s formal write‑up. Both say the findings matter. Fable’s version leans on the same task‑based framework used by Nobel laureates Acemoglu and Restrepo; the tweak is merging reinstatement and augmentation into one concept.

Reinstatement creates a new job, augmentation boosts a human’s capability. I argue the jobs always existed—just economically underwater. When augmentation grows enough, the new job emerges. The model also hinges on an infinite pool of new tasks, which low MPC of the wealthy challenges.

Thus, while the model hints tech progress can be harmful, my take is that progress tends to get worse, with the industrial revolution as a special case. Check both posts and share your thoughts.