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Correlated RNG exposes hidden bias in Slay the Spire 2 beta

Hacker News •
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Players of Slay the Spire 2 discovered that several independent random events share a link. On the current beta v0.107.0 in early runs, choosing Neow's Bones in the Underdocks act yields a curse about 54 % likely to be Debt, while the same choice in Overgrowth produces a different distribution. The first combat drops a potion 76 % of the time in Underdocks but only 4 % in Overgrowth.

Developers attempted to avoid the original game's flaw by seeding each RNG with a unique hash of the global seed. In practice the C# System.Random algorithm is linear, so RNGs whose seeds differ by a fixed offset generate outputs that remain statistically linked. This correlated RNG lets players infer later outcomes for speedruns, from early rolls, skewing relic rarity and curse probabilities.

The bug makes Neow's Bones a poor relic, inflating the chance of the crippling Debt curse and reducing harmless options. Large Capsule’s rarity also shifts dramatically between acts, appearing roughly 1.65 % of the time in Underdocks. Understanding these correlations gives savvy players a measurable edge without modifying the game in normal play.