Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei appeared at Salesforce's Dreamforce conference as the AI startup barrels toward a potential $2 trillion market cap. Independent research firm New Constructs has called the upcoming offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026," valuing the company at merely $150 billion. New Constructs argues Anthropic would need to double Nvidia's recent $190 billion in trailing four-quarter profit to justify its target valuation, a feat the firm deems unrealistic given Anthropic's 2025 financials.
According to leaked prospectus data cited by Reuters, the company recorded $4.6 billion in revenue but a staggering $42 billion net loss in 2025. New Constructs founder David Trainer, a noted IPO bear, concluded that Anthropic lacks a viable business, stating simply, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business." This skepticism echoes the firm's past calls, including labeling WeWork the "most ridiculous IPO of 2019," which subsequently filed for bankruptcy in 2023. While acknowledging Anthropic's societal value compared to WeWork, New Constructs warns the IPO presents "far bigger risks" and a "far bigger rip off of U.S. capital markets" for liquidity of Wall Street backers.
The firm also notes Anthropic's claims about AI existential risk as a deterrent. Despite Anthropic's assertion of a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, New Constructs maintains its bearish stance, suggesting the IPO's primary purpose is insider liquidity rather than public market investment.
Source: Hacker News · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing