For some months, the conflict between Iran and the US has teetered between war and peace. Over the past week, fighting in the Gulf has dramatically expanded, while peacemaking efforts have foundered.

The seizure of most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast by the Houthi militia, closely allied to Iran, has opened a new front. The Houthis attacked Saudi energy infrastructure, coinciding with a drone attack that forced the closure of the East-West oil pipeline crossing Saudi Arabia. Days later, talks between Iran and the Gulf states, aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz, were postponed.

Saudi Arabia now finds itself on the frontline, endangering its ability to export oil and the grand development plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS. Further restrictions on energy supplies are emerging as the western world heads into winter, undermining the Trump administration’s claim that the US is gaining the upper hand in its struggle with Iran.

The conflict has three linked dimensions: the battlefield, the economic struggle and the battle of narratives. Iran’s ability to withstand the first assault, close the Strait of Hormuz and attack the Gulf states dispelled the short-war illusion. Although the US blockade is choking Iranian oil exports, attacks on the East-West pipeline and the threat to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait could choke off Gulf energy supplies to the west more completely.