The Atlantic hurricane season has blown through its traditional peak around September 10 with nary a tropical wave in sight, marking a historic quiet period. Usually this is when sea surface temperatures are warmest in the tropics, favoring tropical systems. This year, the main region where most systems develop is choked with Saharan dust and wind shear.

No one is complaining, as landfalling hurricanes are destructive for coastal areas and Gulf of Mexico storms can spike energy prices. Beginning in 1944, the United States started monitoring the Atlantic basin, and dating back to 1944, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11. The latest 'first' Atlantic hurricanes came in 2002 with Gustav and 2013 with Humberto.

If we extend the record to 1851, every year still records at least one Atlantic hurricane, though in 1941 the first formed on September 17—the latest on record. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a single disturbance with a 'near zero' percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two days.