When a storm approaches, signs appear — dropping wind, receding tides, cloud streamers — yet we often ignore them until it's too late. The same applies to human affairs. Regimes seem strong until they collapse; revolutions and international upheavals are clear only in retrospect. We prefer comforting illusions, like Voltaire's Dr. Pangloss insisting "all is for the best," while ignoring Albert Camus's warning from "The Plague": dead rats appear, people fall ill, yet governments and citizens ignore signs until catastrophe strikes.

Today, dead rats surround us. Record temperatures, droughts, wildfires rage. Debt in advanced economies nears historic highs. U.S. cuts to medical and food aid cause unnecessary deaths and disease spread. Artificial intelligence advances rapidly, unregulated, threatening jobs and security. Revisionist powers flout norms with impunity. Electorates are volatile. Slow diplomacy has yielded to performative, TikTok-style politics. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program recorded 65 state-based conflicts last year — the highest since 1946. Great powers bog down in asymmetric wars. President Vladimir Putin's Ukraine war enters its fifth year. Iran uses cheap drones to control a crucial trade corridor and deplete U.S. missile stocks.

A world war isn't inevitable, but catastrophic conflict between major powers is closer than in decades. Like Camus's Oran, we're reluctant to acknowledge how much the world has changed. We holiday amid wildfires, outsource thinking to AI, hope institutions will rebuild. But a new age of disorder has arrived with startling speed. The post-war order eroded through complacency and acceptance of bad behavior. We must prepare by honestly facing the seriousness of the moment.