Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell warned last year that worsening disasters could leave regions where "you can't get a mortgage" as insurers retreat. New research from New York University and the University of British Columbia confirms this cascade is already underway. Analyzing Senate Budget Committee data on home insurance non-renewals from 2018 to 2023, the study finds a damaging ripple effect in climate-vulnerable areas, particularly fire-threatened California and the storm-prone coastal south-east.

A 1 percentage point rise in a county's non-renewal rate correlated with a 0.91 percentage point increase in foreclosures, an 8.3 per cent drop in average single-family home values, and a 16.5 per cent plunge for low-value homes. The shock extends to local commerce: the same increase linked to an 8.6 per cent decline in retail sales. "This is a large enough shock economically that it creates a cascade of meaningful consequences," said NYU professor Mary Billings, urging policymakers to rethink frameworks that suppress premiums without maintaining access.

Separately, Stanford and UC Berkeley research found companies like Apple, Costco, Delta Air Lines, and Pfizer that retained DEI programs despite Trump administration pressure saw no revenue or stock-price penalty, suggesting firms overestimated defiance risks.