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Title: Canadian Data Dismiss China-US Bond Conspiracy Theory

Content: A theory circulating among bond-market watchers suggests China is concealing the true scale of its US debt holdings by routing securities through Canadian custodians. Research from National Bank Financial analysts Warren Lovely, Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie challenges this claim, calling it a conspiracy theory lacking supporting evidence.

The analysts examined Statistics Canada data showing Canadian entities held foreign bonds worth over C$1.1 trillion in Q2 2023. They found the sharp rise in Canada's US debt holdings—while China's declined—stems from legitimate factors: growth among Canadian financial institutions, net purchases accounting for half the increase, and revaluation effects like currency movements comprising the remainder.

Canadian banks contributed the largest portion of recent foreign bond growth, partly reflecting expanded foreign-currency deposit liabilities. Non-bank financial firms, including lightly regulated hedge funds, also drove significant increases—C$63 billion in two years—due to Treasury liquidity advantages for relative-value trading strategies. The analysts concluded it's implausible that Canada's heavily regulated banks are masking China's Treasury positions.

FAQ Q: Is China hiding its US Treasury holdings through Canadian custodians?

FAQ A: No, according to National Bank Financial analysts. Canadian data show the increase in foreign bond holdings stems from domestic institutional growth, net purchases, and currency revaluation effects—not concealed Chinese ownership.

المصدر: Bloomberg Markets · لخّصه HeadlinesBriefing