Republicans have long relied on crime as a central campaign issue, but plunging violent crime rates nationwide are undermining that strategy in the 2026 midterms. In North Carolina, GOP ads targeting Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper have included misleading claims about murders and prison releases, yet Cooper maintains a consistent lead over Republican Michael Whatley. Despite $18.5 million spent on crime-focused ads in the state, analysts note the message lacks traction.

Mitch Kokai of the John Locke Foundation observed that Whatley failed to pivot to other issues as crime loses potency. Border chaos, transgender athletics laws, and Iran war rhetoric have also faded as effective GOP talking points. Voters now prioritize everyday costs over crime, which has seen a staggering decline under Biden, with murder rates at their lowest since 1900.

Even Trump shifted mid-rally in Gastonia from accusing Cooper of “blood-soaked killing fields” to boasting about the “largest drop in violent crime ever recorded.” Conservative commentator Andrew Dunn warned that Trump’s portrayal of North Carolina as exceptionally violent would backfire. Holly Harris of Arnold Ventures noted this is the first election in her lifetime where crime failed to resonate as a winning issue, marking a significant shift in Republican electoral strategy.