Europe is entering winter with its lowest natural gas stores on record, at just 65.6% capacity, the lowest for this time of year in 15 years according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory database. Prices have surged over 75% in two months, hitting a three-year high. The Middle East conflict, now in its seventh month, has cut a significant portion of global gas supplies, while high summer prices deterred companies from filling storage.

German and Dutch storage groups will miss their national targets of 70% and 80% respectively, though Italy, France, and Spain are in better shape. MET CEO Huibert Vigeveno warned that injection rates limit how quickly storage can be filled. Analysts say outright shortages are unlikely and prices remain well below 2022 peaks after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but experts caution against complacency.

The European Commission notes gas demand has fallen 17% due to renewables and lower industrial use, and an El Niño pattern may bring milder weather. The Dutch government is providing €1bn to state-owned Energie Beheer Nederland to boost storage. UK storage remains very limited, relying on pipeline and LNG imports.