Last updated: September 3, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
Global Equities
US stock futures posted modest gains Thursday as bond yields stabilized near multi-year highs and investors digested commentary from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. Asian stocks were poised to track Wall Street higher as oil’s surge eased after President Donald Trump played down the prospect of a prolonged conflict with Iran. European markets were steady as oil and bond markets stabilized, while Deutsche Telekom gained on news that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a sizeable stake. The broader market saw stocks rise as a rally in Treasury yields stalled, though equity and bond moves were muted as oil prices continued climbing due to clashes between Iran and the US. Investors remained on alert for a possible yen intervention as bond markets stabilized and oil slipped. The Nikkei rose 0.1%, led by trading houses and financial stocks as recent bond selloffs eased.
Fixed Income and Central Banks
Treasuries rose after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’d be inclined to leave interest rates unchanged as long as inflation continues to slow. Waller indicated his next decision on rates will be “heavily influenced” by August inflation data due next week, while also sounding optimistic about inflation’s trajectory but suggesting he would support higher rates if progress does not continue. The Fed governor pushed back on Warsh over the right sports analogy for monetary policy. The global bond retreat slowed as high yields tempted investors, even as climbing energy prices kept markets on edge. British asset manager Schroders has bought more longer-dated US Treasuries, saying yields have nearly peaked after the recent selloff. Four forces are pressuring bonds with war as the No. 1 factor, including fiscal worries, a new Federal Reserve chairman and the flood of AI bonds. A closely watched auction of Japan’s 30-year government bonds passed smoothly with yields above 4%, offering some respite from the selloff in long-dated bonds, though the auction had risked adding fuel to the debt selloff as global yields hit their highest levels in almost two decades. Malaysia’s central bank held its rate but tweaked its monetary policy statement to remove a reference to its stance as being “appropriate,” in a possible signal of price pressure ahead.
Currencies and Intervention
The Japanese yen strengthened to a nearly one-month high against the dollar amid chatter that authorities could again intervene in foreign-exchange markets, rising close to ¥156 to the dollar after a sudden jump overnight. Yen traders are on heightened alert for possible intervention around the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, with a three-day holiday following the decision offering authorities an opportunity to act. A September rate hike from the BOJ may be the minimum needed to prevent another slide in the yen, according to OCBC. The Chinese yuan’s appeal may grow as an alternative to the yen for carry trades if the Bank of Japan makes further interest-rate hikes as widely expected, according to BBVA. Equity markets moved sideways in early European trade as investors watched for further currency intervention after the yen surged, with traders on alert. The Singapore dollar is tracking the US currency in an inverse direction more closely than any other in Asia, which analysts say positions it for stronger gains if the “dollar debasement” narrative plays out. Some of the biggest holders of US assets have little protection against a weaker dollar, leaving the currency vulnerable to fueling a selloff. Government meddling is becoming a bigger market risk, with so much intervention talk making markets jumpy.
Energy and Commodities
Oil futures fell in early Asian trade on a likely technical correction after rising for a third consecutive session, with President Trump saying renewed attacks on Iran would be short-lived while reiterating his claim that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz. Oil had steadied after a three-day rally as US-Iran clashes escalated. US retail diesel prices hit the highest since mid-2022, topping a peak seen during the early stages of the Iran war to approach a record. The European diesel premium hit a record high as the so-called crack spread rose above $100 a barrel on the continent for the first time, leaving diesel at more than twice the cost of underlying crude. Russia’s oil revenue slumped to a six-month low in August, reflecting lower export prices and compounding pressure on the Kremlin’s finances. Ukraine attacked a small service ship involved in planned repair works at the key CPC oil terminal in the Black Sea, a facility vital to Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Forecasts for hot weather extending beyond Labor Day helped lift US natural gas futures as the market awaited the weekly inventory report from the EIA. The US-Israel war with Iran and the inability of Trump to extricate himself from it have made one fund a good bet for riding the wild, war-fueled oil market. Base metals advanced after Trump said that a new wave of US attacks on Iran would likely be short-lived, easing concerns about further escalation. Gold held a gain as Trump appeared to rule out prolonged military action, easing inflationary concerns, though prices traded lower in the early Asian session ahead of US jobs data that could influence interest rate bets for September. Fiscal burdens, sovereign buying and positive bond-equity correlation continue to support the precious metal, suggesting gold’s run isn’t yet done. The Dutch central bank said shifting its 78 metric tons of gold, worth $11 billion, from New York to London would improve its ability to trade the metal in a pinch, citing geopolitical unrest.
Energy Policy and Geopolitical Risk
Washington is exerting its power and American companies are seizing the opportunity to diversify their production as US oil giants expand in Venezuela and the Middle East under Trump’s reshaping of global energy. Venezuelan bonds have jumped since the Trump administration moved to take control of a huge swath of the country’s oil reserves, with investors factoring in higher crude production ahead of a debt rework. The president’s plan to take control of Venezuela’s oil comes with uncertainties, and it’s unclear it would provide relief to Americans pinched by high prices at the pump, as Trump’s Venezuela oil grab is no quick fix for gas prices. Trump’s “economic D-Day” against Iran faces an uphill battle, with the administration’s sanctions strategy showing limits. Longer Middle East deployments are straining US forces as the Iran conflict drags on, with military resources stretched thin. Lloyd’s of London faces £1.4bn in losses from the US-Iran war as attacks on critical infrastructure in the Gulf lead to a rise in insurance claims. Jebel Ali, the port that built Dubai, faces “existential risk” as Strait of Hormuz disruption stifles marine traffic to the Gulf, exposing a dangerous dependence. Europe has put off buying natural gas for the winter in a potentially risky bet that the Iran war will be over soon and prices will drop, as the continent runs low on natural gas. Bangladesh was forced to pay the most for liquefied natural gas in about four years, threatening to drive up energy costs as the government scrambles to contain rolling blackouts, with the country paying most for gas since 2022. Taiwan has proposed more than $13 billion in funding, mainly for its state-run energy companies, to secure LNG and shield electricity users when a price freeze expires, a funding package to secure supply disrupted by war. This year’s El Nino is on track to be the strongest in at least 70 years, further increasing the likelihood of widescale disruption to global agricultural markets, though climate shocks have progressively become less damaging over time as free trade shields against impacts.
Dealmaking and M&A
Nvidia is acquiring open-source AI platform Hugging Face in a deal valued at $12.9 billion, an indication of the chip group’s growing role as Silicon Valley’s central banker and its emphasis on open-source technology. The model and data repository had turned down big investment from Jensen Huang’s chip group last year to preserve independence, but the acquisition extends Nvidia’s AI spending spree. Diversified Energy agreed to acquire Elliott Investment Management-backed oil and gas company Birch Resources in a deal valued at about $1.8 billion. Canada picked Alstom to build passenger railcars in a multibillion-dollar deal, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying the government would spend about 4.7 billion Canadian dollars (US$3.4 billion) to acquire new-generation cars for state-owned Via Rail. Thoma Bravo-owned Proofpoint is in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity firm Varonis, which had a market value of around $5 billion, sending shares of the target higher. Barilla will acquire mac-and-cheese brand Goodles, the maker of flavors like Here Comes Truffle, which will remain as a stand-alone brand within the Italian group. A surge of mergers and public offerings in the final months of 2026 could push dealmaking volumes to a new high, according to JPMorgan’s co-head of global investment banking, with dealmaking on track for a record year. A unit of Indian billionaire Kumar Mangalam Birla’s conglomerate has received as much as 240 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) in commitments from at least four banks for an acquisition loan, 70% more than it sought, drawing heavy bids for the buyout loan. Hongkong Land, one of Hong Kong’s biggest landlords, is in talks to enter Japan’s resurgent property market as part of parent Jardine Matheson’s pivot toward becoming an investment firm, eyeing billion-dollar property deals. Everton owners Friedkin Group is working with advisers on a sale process less than two years after buying the Liverpool club, seeking new investors. Harvey Nichols’ sale is set to cost luxury brands millions, with brands including Chloé and Victoria Beckham set to recover less than 15p in the pound after Frasers Group buys the department store chain. Seven theoretical tie-ups could help Europe’s corporate sector compete with the US and China — if regulators, politicians and the public allowed them, in what amounts to a recipe for a European champion. Competition is growing between banks and proprietary trading firms, with JPMorgan having curbed lending to Jane Street last year after the trading specialist began making markets in US Treasuries, highlighting the new rivalry on Wall Street.
Earnings and Corporate News
Tyson Foods shares plunged as the US’s largest meatpacker again cut its outlook for the fiscal year, in the latest signal that the beef industry’s pains amid a shrinking US cattle herd are far from over. The company said it expects revenue in fiscal 2026 to rise by 1.5% to 2%, down from a previous range of 2.5% to 3.5%, citing cattle pressure. Broadcom more than tripled its profit and nearly doubled its revenue in the third quarter, as the company said demand for its custom semiconductors should continue growing for the next two years. HPE lifted its long-term growth targets after revenue gains across both segments drove a more than fivefold increase in profit during the third quarter, with AI demand driving the surge. Soitec shares jumped after the company lifted its revenue guidance for the current quarter, expecting revenue growth of around 50% at constant currency and scope, compared with more than 30% growth previously, on strong AI demand. Campbell’s Co. shares slumped after the packaged food and snack maker posted its fourth straight quarterly sales decline, cut its dividend and unveiled a cost-savings plan, swinging to a loss and logging lower sales hurt by higher costs that weighed on margins as well as softer demand. Victoria’s Secret raised its sales outlook, saying it now expects sales of $7.1 billion to $7.18 billion for the year, pointing to progress against its turnaround plan even as second-quarter sales growth cooled. Five Below shares rose over 8% in postmarket trading after the retailer lifted its full-year outlook, citing the addition of new stores and the popularity of its budget-friendly merchandise, with the company now expecting sales of $5.63 billion to $5.71 billion for the year. Petco Health & Wellness shares rose as much as 14% in postmarket trading after the pet supply retailer reported profit above Wall Street expectations and comparable sales grew for the second straight quarter, with services and auto-ship sales growing. PVH, the owner of Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, reported a second-quarter loss of $102.9 million compared with a profit of $224.2 million a year earlier, as revenue fell on pressure from the Iran war. Impala Platinum’s fiscal-year earnings surged, buoyed by higher precious-metal prices and the reversal of prior write-downs at its Rustenburg operations in South Africa, with profit surging on higher metal prices. Crest Nicholson shares tumbled as the UK homebuilder reversed previous guidance for a modest profit this year and now expects to make a loss thanks to a subdued housing market and lackluster pricing, battling weak demand and fallout from the Iran war. Shein shares sank almost 9% on the third day of trading, closing more than HK$6 below the offer price for the online fast-fashion retailer. Australian earnings beats are outpacing misses for the first time in four years, defying a challenging economic backdrop and bolstering chances for a stalled stock rally to resume. Entain exits the FTSE 100 in surprisingly good shape, and the gambling group could create value by slimming down.
Corporate Governance and Activism
Elliott Investment Management has built a sizeable stake in Deutsche Telekom and indicated the German telecommunications giant should ditch a potential merger with its American arm T-Mobile US, instead focusing on ways to boost shareholder value such as stock buybacks. Shares of Japanese trading houses rose after Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel signaled long-term commitment to the firms and the possibility of additional investments. Uber is allying with driver unions in a bid to slow robotaxi rollout, with the ride-hailing app admitting its effort to back workers may appear “ironic” after years of clashes with drivers. Corporate America is axing the “micro-team” boss, with managers with small fiefdoms at Uber and elsewhere becoming an especially vulnerable target in the push to purge management ranks. Volkswagen shook up US leadership again after steep sales declines, with veteran executive Marco Schubert taking over the automaker’s North American business as its current boss leaves the company after less than two years in the role. VW risks a downgrade to “junk” without sweeping cuts, warns top investor Union Investment, which is urging the supervisory board to vote through a restructure that would axe 100,000 jobs in Germany. Japanese companies are expanding their toolkit to deal with the steepest borrowing costs in a generation, including considering sales of strategic shareholdings and other assets to offset the impact of rising yen debt costs. HDFC Bank is barely holding on to its position as the most influential stock on India’s equity benchmark as a leadership upheaval and governance concerns deepen a selloff, with shares having tumbled 29% this year in their worst showing relative to the Nifty Bank gauge since 2003, putting the top Nifty spot at risk from rival ICICI Bank. Two Sigma Investments co-founder John Overdeck testified in his divorce trial that maintaining equal control of the quantitative hedge fund with co-founder David Siegel is a “principal concern” for him. Coinbase is adding Anthony Armstrong, an Elon Musk ally and former Morgan Stanley banker, to its board of directors. Federal prosecutors allege Linqto’s William Sarris, founder of the private-company investment firm, marked up prices of pre-IPO shares, charging him with defrauding investors. KPMG warned Guggenheim’s private investment division over deficiencies in internal controls, with the Big Four auditor flagging flaws in how the unit accounted for revenue. Australia’s banking regulator put additional capital requirements on ING Bank Australia after the lender revealed it had misreported its liquidity position over several years, telling the bank to boost capital on flawed reports. The founder of a private-company investment firm was charged with defrauding investors.
Private Credit and Alternative Assets
Blackstone moved to limit redemptions from its flagship private credit fund for a second consecutive quarter, providing an early glimpse at the lasting pressures facing the $1.8 trillion market. The flagship $43bn fund said it was hit with notices from investors to pull 10% of the vehicle’s value in the third quarter, though Blackstone stands firm with its cap on outflows. Australian asset manager IFM Investors will deploy up to half of a roughly $1 billion private credit fund to other Asian markets, drawn by untapped opportunities and deal structures it views as more favorable, targeting Asia expansion in private credit. Luxury gym Equinox is in refinancing talks to shred debt and bulk up cash, with investors in advanced discussions for a funding round that would give the indebted chain capital to open new clubs and reduce interest costs. Cerba Healthcare has filed a request to start court-supervised restructuring proceedings in France as the private laboratories company attempts to tackle a debt pile of around €5 billion ($5.8 billion). Venture capitalists are pivoting to physical experiences as they seek businesses insulated from the rapid development of artificial intelligence, leading the hunt for AI-proof assets to sports, casinos and travel. The 60/40 portfolio debate continues as bonds have lost their hedging power in the post-pandemic era, according to Unhedged readers.
Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt
Pakistan raised $3 billion from a two-part junk bond sale, taking advantage of investor interest after securing credit rating upgrades in the past couple of months, as the country seeks other funding sources after the UAE declined to roll over a $3 billion loan earlier this year, exposing the risks of its reliance on bilateral financing. Senegal has been at the front of emerging-market bond investors’ minds since the government discovered billions of dollars of hidden debt two years ago, and now faces a $5 billion bond revamp that aims to prevent a default. A Singapore court’s landmark decision allowing administrators of bankrupt Indonesian textile maker PT Sri Rejeki Isman to pursue assets in the city-state may open a new route to recoveries for investors in other distressed Indonesian firms. Swiss inflation jumped in August, reversing several months of cooling price growth as renewed tensions in the Middle East pushed global energy costs higher, with inflation rising on higher energy prices. India’s rupee gained as the central bank garnered $136 billion under its capital-raising measures, far exceeding expectations and further boosting its war chest to defend the currency. India tapped its vast diaspora for a record $127 billion through a special deposit program, a fundraising bonanza that economists say could come with a hefty $10.6 billion bill for the country’s central bank. In June, India turned to its 35 million-strong diaspora to help stem a sharp decline in the rupee, using FCNR deposits from overseas Indians to support the currency. South Korea’s foreign-exchange reserves rose by a record $14.33 billion in August, driven by a jump in commercial banks’ foreign-currency deposits at the central bank. A disagreement between Chinese and US officials at a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting this week mostly revolved around a dispute over one word, according to people familiar with the talks. The Philippines is looking beyond its longstanding alliance with the US and building ties with non-traditional partners as Trump’s defense and trade policies test alliances, according to Manila’s top diplomat. A Malaysian royal’s plan to sell a tract of land in the heart of Singapore faces a complication: a tax bill that may exceed $1 billion, clouding the Johor Regent’s land sale. Air India is close to securing 100 billion rupees ($1.1 billion) in financial aid from its owners Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines, as the carrier closes in on support.
Legal and Regulatory
Private-equity titan Leon Black is suing the US Congress over the Jeffrey Epstein probe, with the billionaire skipping a deposition on Thursday and filing a lawsuit seeking to block a House committee’s subpoenas demanding nondisclosure agreements he may have made with women. A federal judge rejected the US Department of Justice’s request to force the sale of parts of Google’s advertising business, sparing the search giant a break-up of its online advertising monopoly in a major antitrust victory. The Trump administration is backing OpenAI in its copyright fight with publishers, with officials saying in a court filing that limiting AI companies’ ability to train on content creates national security concerns, urging the court to reject the New York Times’ claim that it is illegal to train AI models on copyrighted content. Federal prosecutors charged an ICE agent with lying about a Minnesota shooting, marking a rare instance of Trump’s Justice Department accusing a federal agent of breaking the law while on the job. The Treasury Department released rules that would prevent schools with race-based programs from qualifying for tax-exempt status, a threat to both higher education and other private schools, as Trump moves to strip tax exemption from schools that aid minority students. A judge blocked Trump’s second try to restrict birthright citizenship, raising concerns that babies already defined as citizens by the Supreme Court could have their citizenship revoked under an order the president signed in August. Trump has imposed tariffs of up to 100% on foreign-made drones, while the FCC is weighing stiff restrictions on common drone technology such as thermal imaging and aerosol spraying. The NBA dropped the hammer on Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers, banning Steve Ballmer after an investigation found the team funnelled millions of dollars to the basketball star to circumvent the league salary cap. After finding antitrust violations, federal courts have been reluctant to impose harsh sanctions on Big Tech, fearing meddling in markets where technology is racing ahead, which explains why the courts struggle to tame the giants. More than 160 US companies, including VW and Amazon, are unable to rule out sanctioned smelters in their supply chains, naming blacklisted groups among potential suppliers in a test of western efforts to clamp down on conflict minerals. An official who oversaw the vetting of ICE recruits cited an “unprecedented lowering of standards” amid a hiring surge, as a whistle-blower says ICE skipped basic checks in its rush for recruits.
Housing and Real Estate
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is projecting an $882 million budget deficit for 2027, even as his administration continues to seek ways to close this year’s shortfall, underscoring the financial pressures on the city from bond and pension costs. A lawyer for New York City landlords said the Mamdani administration “left landlords to drown” in a rent-freeze challenge, which the city disputes, as a judge sharply questioned the landlords. The UAE billionaire’s son, Abbas Sajwani, has been revealed as the buyer of a £190mn London mansion, set to make one of the UK’s most expensive purchases.
Politics and Policy
Elon Musk plans to spend at least $100 million in more than a dozen competitive House and Senate races, launching a push to boost Republicans after helping Donald Trump to victory in 2024. About $1 billion in anonymous contributions is coursing through midterm races across the country, and figuring out where the funds are coming from is no easy task, as New York Times reporters traced dark money in politics. The US trade deficit widened sharply in July to the largest since early 2025, reflecting a surge in imports of computers and other technology equipment, as spending on data centers to feed the AI boom drove up imports. Trump’s unusual relationship to the objective world leaves him dangerously unable to pivot, shift gears or change course, with his fantasy-reality problem deepening. Drawing inspiration from MAGA, separatists in Alberta are pushing for a break away from Canada, with the movement feeding a separatist surge. The Trump administration wants to bar Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program from paying for gender-transition medication and surgery for transgender adolescents, prompting states to sue over the move to end federal funds for transition care. Trump’s Agriculture Department offered new initiatives for ranchers after the president said he would import more beef, but the moves aren’t a quick fix, with tactics to lower beef prices falling short. A proposed garden of heroes in Washington is following a familiar path in which facts on the ground move faster than anyone can keep up, with Trump’s DC makeover projects going from “only an idea” to much more. Trump’s bid to call Lake Ontario “Lake America” stands out in a world full of contested place names, which often represent deeper political or territorial disputes, with the lake caught in a naming fight. The US Postal Service is building a mail-in ballot screening system despite legal battles over Trump’s order, with election officials warning that the creation of a new online portal for states to upload voter information is already fueling confusion and could ultimately disenfranchise voters. Voter fraud is exceedingly rare, but Trump has fixated on rooting it out this year, claiming without evidence that tens of thousands of noncitizens are registered to vote, as his administration launches a hunt for noncitizen voter fraud before the midterms. Many members of Congress in the most competitive re-election races are skipping the chance to share a pep rally stage with Trump, sending regrets as the president throws a midterm party. The fight over defections has highlighted party divisions and raised questions about how Democrats will run the House should they win the majority, with Democrats feuding as midterms loom. A New Hampshire senator’s daughter is running for office and finds her name being used against her, testing whether the nepo-baby attack will work in the midterms. A DSA chapter in Los Angeles endorsed Nithya Raman for mayor, with the member of the chapter challenging Mayor Karen Bass as democratic socialists have surged nationally. Lingering concerns about the Senate nominee in Michigan could make it harder for him to assemble a winning coalition, as El-Sayed wants to mend ties with Jewish Democrats but some are still not impressed. Two police officers were among the injured in a Minneapolis shooting, with their conditions not immediately known and authorities urging people to avoid the area of downtown where the shooting occurred. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described a shootout between rival intelligence agencies on the streets of Kyiv as an “absolutely shameful event” and ordered an investigation, later dismissing a department head at the country’s security service following the clash. The themes present in Lindsay Clancy’s trial are not unfamiliar to Kevin Reddington, a veteran defense lawyer who became a hero to her supporters, as the deadlocked jury deliberates for a fifth day after roughly 28 hours of debate. Medical aid in dying is now legal in New York, and a team of clinical professionals decided to create a practice to help their clients die on their own terms, with a start-up that helps people die launching as the state’s first maid practice. Scientists spent over a decade reconstructing the calls of nine species of ancient insects to create the first accurate Jurassic soundscape, revealing what Jurassic forests sounded like. Gloria Steinem, who championed the cause of equal rights for women for more than six decades using her skills as a writer, activist and public speaker, has died at. Her 1983 book “Outrageous Acts and Everyday Rebellions” is a master class in grit, empathy, curiosity and hustle, as she came to New York to be a writer but became a movement. The glasses, the hairdo, the bell bottoms and hip-slung belts were all wrapped up in her feminist cause, as her glamour was a means to an end. The Athletic said its former reporter Dianna Russini’s relationship with Mike Vrabel of the Patriots gave the appearance of a conflict of interest, violating its standards. Hollywood’s new shows are taking aim at Big Tech, portraying innovators once heralded as making the world a better place trading their lofty virtuous ambitions for profits and power. Amid record-breaking temperatures on the continent, households and businesses in Italy are increasingly installing cooling units, with many Italians who long resisted air-conditioning now embracing it as Europe got hotter. Shares in window specialists have outperformed the broader market in the past month, as for sweltering Britons, rising energy prices could spark a shutter boom.