Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose for a sixth straight day, crossing another key threshold amid a deepening selloff across global debt markets. The 30-year rate surpassed 5.61% on Tuesday to touch a level last seen in 2002, returning deeper into territory that had long been the norm before the low-rate era spanning the global financial crisis and pandemic. The leg higher came as elevated energy prices added to inflationary pressures and hefty corporate-debt supply weighed on the market.
It’s the latest in a series of milestones for the $32 trillion Treasuries market, which is in the throes of a months-long selloff. Government debt has been flailing around the world as elevated oil prices — tied to the war in the Middle East — ripple through the global economy, pushing investors to bet central banks including the Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates. In the US, surging business activity and concern about government debt levels have provided additional momentum.
On Tuesday, Paramount Skydance Corp. kicked off its long-awaited investment-grade bond sale, the largest portion of a syndicated $52 billion debt package for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. “We have the fifth-largest investment-grade deal on record,” said Monty Gandhi, a rates strategist at SMBC. Strategists at Citigroup Inc. say the Treasury market is going through a “light buyer’s strike.” Meanwhile, Yardeni Research says an unwind of the yen-funded carry trade is helping fuel the selloff.
But some, like Wall Street veteran Jim Bianco, see an opportunity in the chaos. He is turning bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years. “It’s been a train wreck in rates over September, and the pain trade may continue,” said Prashant Newnaha, strategist at TD Securities. “As long as there is no Middle East resolution, there is a risk that we see ongoing de-risking in fixed income and it could spread to equities as well.”