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US Military War Games Space Warfare Response Scenarios

Ars Technica •
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The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies brought together 50 experts for a two-day workshop exploring how military commanders should respond to space-based attacks. Participants examined scenarios where mysterious spacecraft appeared near Space Force missile-warning satellites orbiting 22,000 miles above Earth, then suddenly went dark. These billion-dollar sentinels provide early warning of ballistic missile threats to the US homeland.

Retired Space Force Col. Charles Galbreath and Air Force Col. Jennifer Reeves led discussions on attribution challenges that slow decision-making. The workshop revealed that ongoing GPS jamming and cyberattacks already occur in space, but identifying responsible parties remains difficult. This ambiguity creates a 'boiling the frog dynamic' where gradual hostile acts normalize aggression without triggering appropriate responses.

Scenarios escalated from Chinese satellite docking operations to coordinated attacks across multiple domains. Participants concluded that multi-state assaults prove significantly more escalatory than single-actor incidents. The Mitchell Institute recommended establishing clear benchmarks for interpreting hostile space behavior to eliminate response delays and define acceptable norms.

US officials should prioritize resilient architectures and faster reconstitution capabilities to maintain space superiority. Protecting terrestrial infrastructure supporting space operations, along with improved satellite shielding against potential nuclear detonation effects, could deter adversaries from targeting critical national security assets.