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Passan's MLB Free Agency Intel: Skubal, Japan Stars

ESPN MLB •
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Nobody knows what MLB free agency will look like this winter. With a lockout expected less than a month after the market opens and the league intent on securing a salary cap, owners could wait until a new CBA is in place. At least three top free agents -- Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira and Hiromi Itoh -- will get locked up before the basic agreement expires Dec. 1. The Nippon Professional Baseball stars are expected to be posted in early November, sources told ESPN.

Outside of that, it's anyone's best guess. In the days before the last lockout after the 2021 season, there was a flurry of big-money deals, including Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to Texas for $500 million combined. Unlike last time, owners today seek a system that would fundamentally change the game and its salaries.

This is the Tarik Skubal class. Skubal is expected to shatter the record for a pitching contract, currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto at $325 million. He turns 30 in November, and no pitcher age 30 or older has received more than Stephen Strasburg's $245 million. Provided there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that. He is the salvation of this class.

Beyond Skubal, the class is weak. There's one 30-homer hitter, Brandon Lowe. The best OBP belongs to Jake Bauers, a soon-to-be 31-year-old who never before played full-time.