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US Bond Yields Rise: Market Impact and Outlook

Financial Times Markets •
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Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin report on the rising US bond yields, noting the 10-year yield climbed 14 basis points on Wednesday and stayed above 5.1 per cent on Thursday. This surge is driven by three key fundamentals: inflation above target at 3.6 per cent, accelerating US economic growth, and a credible Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, who is perceived as hawkish. The article highlights that nominal GDP growth exceeds 6.5 per cent, making 5 per cent yields appear relatively low. Additionally, a poor fiscal situation, upcoming Treasury supply, competition from hyperscaler debt, and a shrinking buyer base for Treasuries further pressure yields. The piece suggests yields may continue rising, with no clear top in sight.

The authors also reference a Morgan Stanley employee's email mishap, accidentally sharing investment banking deals with a wide distribution list, drawing attention from rivals. They invite readers to share their own email blunders, emphasizing the universal risk of such errors.