Value is value, no matter where you find it. That is the approach ESPN's betting team aims to bring to this space each week, looking for edges across lines, totals, player props and anytime touchdown scorers.
Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives to their picks. Solak leans on player evaluation and the X's and O's, while Walder relies on statistical models to find plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Mike Clay, ESPN's fantasy projection creator, also contributes his top predicted anytime TD scorers for Week 7.
Bowen's headline play is the OVER 53.5 total in the Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions game. He argues the Lions may have adjusted their defense over the bye week, but the Packers have matchup advantages with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, and Josh Jacobs returns to the backfield. Detroit is scoring 32.8 points per game, and the indoor setting at Ford Field makes a shootout likely.
Bowen also recommends a two-team, 6-point teaser pairing the Vikings -0.5 against the Colts with the Broncos-Cardinals UNDER 49.5. Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate at 67.6% and allows a league-low 12.8 points per game, a challenge for an Indianapolis offense lacking a vertical passing element.
All listed bets are tracked at one unit each, with results to be recorded throughout the season. Odds are from DraftKings and subject to change.
Source: ESPN NFL · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing