Bill Barnwell's analysis of NFL free agency reveals a sobering reality: top-tier signings rarely meet their hefty price tags. Examining the top 50 free agents by average annual salary from 2013 to 2022, Barnwell graded each player's performance against their contract expectations on a 0-6 scale. Wan'Dale Robinson's $70 million deal with the Titans serves as a prime example; to earn a 6, he'd need Pro Bowl-level production consistently, far exceeding his actual 2023 output. The study found that while splashy signings like Saquon Barkley and Sam Darnold had standout years, only 30% of the highest-paid free agents delivered value exceeding their contract's AAV.

Positions like wide receiver and edge rusher showed slightly better success rates than others, but even elite players often struggle to justify their cost over the life of a multi-year contract. This suggests teams frequently overpay for short-term impact rather than sustainable success.