History suggests winning the Australian Grand Prix won't guarantee a Formula 1 world championship, despite the sport's biggest-ever rules overhaul. ESPN analysis of nine previous major regulation changes shows only four opening-race winners went on to claim the title that season, with just three constructors' champions also winning the season opener.

Stirling Moss won the 1961 opener for Lotus but finished third in the standings, while Nelson Piquet in 1983 claimed both the season-opening victory and championship. More recently, Charles Leclerc won Bahrain in 2022, but Max Verstappen and Red Bull dominated both championships. Mercedes' Nico Rosberg won the 2014 opener but lost the title to Lewis Hamilton.

This weekend's race at Albert Park could set the tone for the new era, but unpredictability remains high. Mercedes enters as the consensus favorite due to its power unit, though the team has been coy about its true pace. George Russell leads their charge, while Ferrari appears strong in the chasing pack. As always, Red Bull's Verstappen and McLaren's Norris and Piastri cannot be counted out.