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NBA Summer Forecast 2026-27: Surprises, Disappointments & Key Questions

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NBA Insiders Aug 27, 2026, 07:00 AM ET Our Summer Forecast rolls on this week with the biggest on-court questions facing teams heading into the 2026-27 season. Which teams will improve and which will decline? Who will be the first superstar considered for a trade, and which teams will be in the hunt for talent? And will we finally get a repeat champion after nine seasons? Our NBA insiders tackled these questions and more with our latest update to the NBA Summer Forecast, including the New York Knicks' chances at making a move this season, how many points Le Bron James will score per game in his first season in Philadelphia and if Draymond Green will end up somewhere else by the trade deadline. Surprise teams: Which teams will make a major leap? T-1.

Indiana Pacers: 46 points T-1. Utah Jazz: 46 points 3. Washington Wizards: 20 points T-4.

Dallas Mavericks: 15 points T-4. Philadelphia 76ers: 15 points 6. Atlanta Hawks: 14 points T-7.

Charlotte Hornets: 10 points T-7. Portland Trail Blazers: 10 points The top three teams on this list have ambitions of making a massive leap after participating in a pillow fight for lottery positioning. Finishing at the bottom of the standings paid dividends for the Wizards and Jazz -- who landed the top two picks and AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, respectively -- but not for the Pacers, whose pick was top-four-protected and went to the Clippers as the No. 5 selection.

That pick was part of the Ivica Zubac trade, a midseason acquisition that had a lot in common with the Jazz's trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Wizards' deals for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. In each instance, the teams added proven high-end starters who could be major factors in big turnarounds after sitting most or all of the remainder of the 2025-26 season. The 76ers are the one team in this group that hopes to prove our panel wrong, as expectations have soared in Philadelphia after new president of basketball operations Mike Gansey managed to swap Paul George's bloated contract for All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown while winning the Le Bron James sweepstakes, signing the all-time leading scorer on a veterans minimum salary.

But this isn't fantasy basketball. Coach Nick Nurse and the Sixers have to figure out fit and chemistry on the fly with a starting lineup that features four ball-dominant stars with All-NBA credentials and potential star VJ Edgecombe. -- Tim Mac Mahon Disappointing teams: Which team will take a tumble this season? 1. Los Angeles Lakers: 32 points 2.

Detroit Pistons: 27 points 3. Golden State Warriors: 26 points 4. Miami Heat: 22 points 5.

Boston Celtics: 17 points There's no more potent formula for disappointment in the NBA than the weight of expectations combined with an organizational standard for perennial championship contention. That's the scenario facing the Lakers and Heat next season, with L. A. building out its team to fit specifically around 27-year-old superstar Luka Doncic and Miami landing its next face of the franchise: Giannis Antetokounmpo.

If L. A. can't build on its last two 50-win seasons, the team's handling of Le Bron James' exit will be called into question all over again. And if the Heat can't make a playoff run, the three first-round picks and young talent like Kel'el Ware included in the deal with the Milwaukee Bucks will be reexamined.

The other three teams receiving votes are dealing with only one of the two aforementioned elements. The Pistons are coming off the team's first 60-win season in 20 years, which ended with a Game 7 second-round exit on their home floor. They'll be expected to capitalize while Cade Cunningham enters into his prime.

Meanwhile, a quiet offseason of activity by the Warriors could mean the volume will be turned up by a frustrated fanbase if the product doesn't resemble the dynastic teams that Stephen Curry has been a part of...