A ‘Big Fat Cushion’ in Yields Lures New Bond Bulls

Phil Serafino Jim Bianco says the Fed has made it clear it will stamp out inflation. Add Jim Bianco to the list of bond investors who are turning bullish now that Treasury yields have moved above 5%. While the selloff may have further to run, bonds look increasingly attractive, says Bianco, a veteran of more than 40 years in the market. A key change lately is that the Fed has made it clear it will do what it takes to contain the inflation that has hurt bonds this year, he says. The math is becoming more favorable, too. Investors who buy the 10-year now would need to see yields rise to around 6% over the next year before price losses wipe out the bond’s income. The return profile is also asymmetric: A percentage-point increase in yields would produce a loss of less than 2%, while a decline of the same magnitude would generate a return of about 13%. Also growing more bullish on Treasuries lately are Pimco, Swiss private bank Lombard Odier and RBC Blue Bay. “I’m getting a big fat cushion for buying bonds at 5.2%,” said Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. “Now’s not the time to be losing your mind over it.” —Ye Xie

A long-time AI bear is turning bullish. A year after calling it the “dot-com bubble on steroids,” Rajiv Jain has been piling into technology stocks since July. The money manager, who built publicly traded GQG Partners into a $150 billion powerhouse, cited improved valuations and stronger demand for computing power for his change of heart. GQG more than tripled its tech allocation in its emerging-market fund to about 35% in August. Tech companies including Taiwan Semi and Samsung now account for 28% of GQG’s flagship international equity fund, up from 5.4% in July. “There have been some things that we’ve clearly underestimated,” Jain told analysts last month. The shift shows how costly it’s been for AI bears. His funds have trailed peers, prompting investors to yank $36 billion since mid-2025 and sending GQG shares to record lows. Jain is among an increasingly rare breed of big fund managers who take risks and strays far from benchmarks with concentrated positions, rather than hugging indexes. On an earnings call last month, he defended the reversal as part of his investment philosophy. “We’ll make mistakes as we have done before,” Jain said. “But I think in the long run, this adaptability has served us very well, because if, for example, things change again, it doesn’t mean we are wedded to these names.” —Vinicius Andrade and Ye Xie

Phil Serafino Jim Bianco 表示，美联储已明确表示将遏制通胀。Jim Bianco 加入了看涨债券投资者的行列，此前国债收益率已升至5%以上。尽管抛售可能还会持续，但债券看起来越来越有吸引力，Bianco 表示，他在市场已有超过40年的经验。他说，最近一个关键变化是，美联储已明确表示将采取一切措施遏制今年损害债券的通胀。数学计算也变得更加有利。现在买入10年期国债的投资者，需要看到收益率在未来一年上升到约6%，才会因价格下跌而抵消债券的收益。回报分布也是不对称的：收益率上升一个百分点将导致不到2%的损失，而同等幅度的下降将产生约13%的回报。最近对国债越来越看涨的还有 Pimco、瑞士私人银行 Lombard Odier 和 RBC Blue Bay。“我在5.2%的收益率水平买入债券，获得了一个大而丰厚的缓冲，”Bianco 说，他是 Bianco Research 的创始人。“现在不是为这件事发疯的时候。” —Ye Xie

一位长期看空人工智能的人士正在转为看涨。在一年前称其为“ steroids 上的互联网泡沫”之后，Rajiv Jain 自7月以来一直在大举买入科技股。这位基金经理将公开上市的 GQG Partners 打造成了一家资产达1500亿美元的巨头，他将自己态度的转变归因于估值改善和对计算能力需求的增强。GQG 在8月份将其新兴市场基金的科技配置增加了两倍多，达到约35%。包括台湾半导体和三星在内的科技公司目前占 GQG 全球旗舰国际股票基金的28%，而7月份这一比例为5.4%。“我们显然低估了一些事情，”Jain 上个月告诉分析师。这一转变表明，看空人工智能的代价是多么高昂。他的基金表现落后于同行，导致投资者自2025年中期以来撤资360亿美元，GQG 股价跌至历史最低水平。Jain 是少数敢于承担风险、远离基准指数、集中持仓的大型基金经理之一，而不是随波逐流。在上个月的财报电话会议上，他为这一逆转辩护，称这是他投资哲学的一部分。“我们会犯错，就像以前一样，”Jain 说，“但我想从长远来看，这种适应性为我们服务得很好，因为如果事情再次发生变化，这并不意味着我们对这些股票有绑定。” —Vinicius Andrade and Ye Xie