Ben Solak, Seth Walder e Matt Bowen trazem perspectivas diferentes sobre como abordar as apostas esportivas. Solak apoia-se em sua experiência em avaliação de jogadores e nos detalhes táticos (X's and O's) para encontrar vantagens, Walder usa modelos estatísticos para selecionar apostas com valor esperado positivo, focando principalmente na defesa. Bowen, ex segurança da NFL, prevê confrontos positivos e vencedores baseados no estudo de filmagem e no conhecimento da liga. Desde spreads e money lines até totais e props de jogadores defensivos, um bom preço pode ser encontrado em qualquer lugar. Os resultados serão acompanhados durante toda a temporada, com apostas planas de uma unidade para cada aposta listada.

Jogo da semana de Bowen: Kansas City Chiefs contra Miami Dolphins (-10.5, 46.5). Eu costumo evitar spreads de dígitos duplos nesta liga (especialmente favoritos visitantes). Mas olhando o confronto e as vantagens de esquema com Kansas City, estou com o time de Andy Reid. Vou te dar minhas notas rápidas para ambos os times, juntamente com algumas apostas de jogador. Quando os Chiefs têm a bola: A adição fora de temporada de Kenneth Walker III deu aos Chiefs um verdadeiro difference-maker com traços de ameaça dual no backfield. Walker correu pelo menos 117 jardas -- com pelo menos 23 carregamentos -- nos dois jogos desta temporada, e no jogo da Semana 2 vitória sobre os Indianapolis Colts, pegou seis de 10 alvos para 61 jardas. Podemos esperar que Walker receba seus toques no chão contra uma defesa de Miami que permite 112.5 jardas por terra por partida (18.º em NFL), o que permite que a unidade de Reid controle o ritmo ofensivo. No jogo aéreo, vejo claras vantagens de confronto para os Chiefs. Os Dolphins permitem uma média de 8.6 YPA (30.º em NFL), e jogam cobertura homem em 58.9% das vezes (quarto mais frequente). Espere que Reid prepare seus receptores para passes catch-and-run desde Patrick Mahomes, com Rashee Rice e Travis Kelce trabalhando múltiplos níveis do campo contra uma secundária de Miami que carece de talento de alto nível.

Quando Miami tem a bola: Os Dolphins têm lutado para estabelecer ritmo ofensivo e carecem de identidade, tendo falhado em marcar mais de 13 pontos em cada um de seus dois primeiros jogos. O running back De'von Achane acumulou um total de 110 jardas esta temporada, e não estamos vendo sua capacidade élite de recepção (só tem 49 jardas recebidas). O quarterback Malik Willis mostrou flashes, mas sua precisão tem sido inconsistente (completando 58% de seus passes), e lançou apenas um passe de touchdown.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000