Tikehau Capital's private equity chief Emmanuel Laillier says the firm expects its next defense deal to close later this year or early next year, targeting cross-border asset mergers as European defense consolidation accelerates. Laillier distinguishes between wartime production volume and peacetime readiness capacity, warning of a "brutal" normalization after the Ukraine-driven demand surge. He notes diplomatic ties are driving export wins for platforms like the Rafale fighter jet.

The strategy reflects a broader shift: European defense budgets are rising but fragmentation persists. Tikehau Capital's focus on geographic asset combinations aims to create scale and interoperability — critical for a unified European defense industrial base. Laillier argues that merging assets across national borders solves the duplication and scale problems that have long plagued the continent's defense sector.

For investors, the signal is clear: the next wave of defense value creation lies not in pure-play manufacturers but in roll-ups that bridge national champions. Emmanuel Laillier's timing suggests the market is approaching an inflection point where political will meets capital deployment, and the firms that execute cross-border integration first will capture the premium.