Wind operators in Europe are facing unexpected headwinds. According to the EU's Market Observatory for Energy, onshore wind generation across the continent plummeted by 17% in Q1 2025 and offshore generation fell by 22%. While a slight Q2 recovery saw onshore generation rise 3% year-on-year, offshore output dropped another 6%.

Germany's wind generation fell 4% overall in 2025 despite adding 4.9GW of capacity, with forecasts predicting further shortfalls below long-term averages in early 2026. The UK saw a sharper 20% decline from January to April 2025, though annual generation increased 5%. This translates directly to financial pain.

RWE's offshore wind unit reported a €164 million year-on-year EBITDA decrease to €915 million for the first nine months of 2025, citing weaker wind conditions as the primary driver. Ørsted also recorded a DKr1 billion ($157.8 million; €133.8 million) EBITDA reduction due to lower wind speeds. These figures signal trouble for private infrastructure portfolios too, especially as Ørsted recently sold its European onshore business for DKr10.7 billion to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and KKR announced a $15 billion UK offshore wind JV with RWE. The core question remains: are these lower speeds an anomaly or a glimpse of a future impacted by climate change?