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College football bettors target windy conditions, drive totals down

ESPN General •
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Savvy bettors paid more attention to meteorologists than to Trinidad Chambliss or Arch Manning early in the week as the betting market on a marquee college football Saturday took shape. Forecasts call for strong winds in the Northeast on Saturday, potentially impacting games such as Virginia Tech at Boston College and James Madison at Old Dominion. The totals on those games dropped six and five points respectively from the opening numbers, as action from influential bettors showed up quickly.

Chase Michaelson, who oversees college football odds for Circa Sports, told ESPN that he didn't put enough stock in the developing forecast and bettors took advantage, hitting the under on both games starting Sunday and continuing Monday. The Virginia Tech-Boston College total dropped from an opening 54 to 48. The James Madison-Old Dominion total fell from 49.5 to 44 by Wednesday, before ticking back up to 45.

Forecasts change and their accuracy improves closer to game days, but Michaelson says bookmakers can't really afford to take a wait-and-see approach because bettors certainly don't. "I think we have to sort of operate under the impression that a bad forecast is right and we can always adjust it," Michaelson said.