Global smartphone shipments grew 2% year-over-year in 2025, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint. Apple led this growth, increasing its market share from 18% to 20%, representing a 10% shipment increase driven by demand in emerging markets and the iPhone 17 series. Samsung followed with a 19% share and 5% growth, while Xiaomi held 13%, and Oppo and Vivo each held 8%. Senior analyst Varun Mishra notes that a COVID-era upgrade cycle and premium device demand fueled these results. However, Counterpoint research director Tarun Pathak warns of a 3% market contraction in 2026.

This decline is attributed to component shortages, specifically DRAM and NAND chips, as supply chains prioritize AI data centers. Despite these headwinds, Apple and Samsung are expected to maintain resilience due to strong supply chains and premium positioning. These dynamics will impact consumers through potential price hikes and affect manufacturers' strategic focus on high-margin devices.