Alexandra Prokopenko, former Russian central bank adviser, describes Russia's economy as trapped in a "death zone" four years after the Ukraine invasion. The economy maintains a negative equilibrium while destroying its future capacity. Oil revenues have halved under Western sanctions, forcing the Kremlin to burn through reserves as the budget deficit widens.

Russia now operates on "military rent" – budget transfers to defense enterprises producing weapons that face destruction rather than future economic growth. With military casualties estimated at 1.2 million, including 325,000 killed, the economy consumes its own productive capacity. Interest payments on government debt this year will exceed education and healthcare spending combined.

Russian officials warned Putin a financial crisis could arrive within months as oil revenue crashed 50% in January. Restaurants close while workers face layoffs. Despite Ukraine liberating 168.9 square kilometers of territory since January, Putin's economy remains increasingly dependent on defense spending. The military now suffers casualties faster than recruitment rates can replace them.