World energy markets face a critical test as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from roughly 70 vessels daily to just four during May. This dramatic reduction represents Iran potentially seizing control of a vital maritime chokepoint, cutting off approximately 15 million barrels a day of oil and gas supplies.

The disruption has removed roughly 1.2 billion barrels of supply over three months, creating the nightmare scenario analysts warned about. Unlike the 1970s energy crises, today's markets have buffers including diversified supply chains and strategic petroleum reserves that have helped moderate price impacts so far.

Financial markets have kept prices in check through expectations of imminent settlement, while physical markets have drawn down inventories to compensate for missing cargoes. However, these buffers are finite and shrinking. The oil market now sits at a juncture where inventory levels will determine the next price move.

If the strait reopens soon, crude prices may retreat but likely won't return to the $60s a barrel seen earlier this year. Extended closure risks inventory depletion that could push prices sharply higher over coming months, placing additional strain on the global economy.