1503 ET – Oil futures edge up in cautious trading as the market weighs conflicting reports of how much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz. “Extraordinary workarounds are compensating for a badly impaired shipping route,” Mark Malek says. “Alternative oil routes demonstrate impressive resilience, but resilience is not the same as excess capacity.” Tanker relays and pipelines can buy time but don’t replace unrestricted access through the strait. U.S. government figures suggest considerably more oil is escaping the region than vessel‑tracking data would indicate. When the official number and the observable number disagree by this much, the observable number usually wins the argument eventually. WTI settles up 0.5% at $84.94 a barrel and Brent rises 0.2% to $91.02.\n\n1147 ET – Oil futures extend gains after President Trump says there are no talks occurring or scheduled with Iran, and that the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating. “There’s no talks happening and that’s all that the market heard,” says Tracy Shuchart.

While workarounds have helped keep oil prices from soaring, the stress is showing up in products with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries adding to the problem. Crude market volatility has eased, but “I think we’re higher‑for‑longer oil and seem to be rotating Brent around $90 and WTI around $85, which is still $20 to $25 higher than last year,” Shuchart adds. WTI is up 1.2% at $85.49 a barrel and Brent is 0.9% higher at $91.71.\n\n1057 ET – Stocks in Abu Dhabi extend gains from the previous session, while Qatar stocks continue to fall, with their benchmark indices rising 0.2% and falling 0.5%, respectively.

Abu Dhabi’s relative strength looks constructive, supported by resilient earnings and its banking and telecom sectors, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Qatar remains more vulnerable given its exposure to regional energy and LNG‑related risks, helping explain the continued weakness. Geopolitics remains the main driver of GCC sentiment, but differences in fundamentals, valuations and liquidity are increasingly driving relative performance across markets, Abou Ismail says.