The World Bank warned Tuesday that the flare‑up in the Middle East will lift commodity prices, eroding growth prospects for emerging markets. Rising costs for oil, natural gas, urea and other raw inputs are set to push inflation higher across the region. Investors should expect tighter margins for exporters that rely on cheap energy, while import‑dependent economies face steeper price bills.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted since the United States and Israel struck Iran in late February, choking the main artery for Middle Eastern energy flows. The bottleneck has cut global supply of crude and associated feedstocks, prompting spot prices to jump sharply. Analysts say the disruption could shave 0.5‑1 percentage point off growth forecasts for the world’s poorest nations.

Developing economies that import fertilizers and petrochemicals will feel the squeeze first, as higher urea costs threaten food‑price stability. Central banks in these markets may be forced to tighten monetary policy despite fragile growth, raising borrowing costs for businesses. The World Bank’s outlook signals that the conflict’s spillover could linger, keeping global commodity markets volatile for months.