Kevin Warsh gave a hawkish address without upsetting markets. The Fed Chairman continued his case against explicit forward guidance at the Jackson Hole summit, offering his clearest comments yet on the economy, with concerns about inflation. He noted that better inflation readings this summer hadn't convinced him the trend was improving, and that borrowing conditions don't appear restrictive.

Traders increased bets on rate hikes, with the market-implied likelihood of a rate increase next month rising to around 60% from 35% on Thursday. Bond yields moved higher, especially at the short end, with 2-year Treasury yields rising 0.118 percentage point to 4.348%, while 10-year yields rose a milder 0.05 percentage point. Gold fell more than 3%, and stocks were mildly lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.25% and the Nasdaq down 0.5%.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil firms, including Chevron, are near a deal to invest billions in Venezuelan oil fields, potentially adding two heavy-oil fields. Halliburton is also in talks to bring equipment to Venezuela. This article reflects on whether the stock market feels like 1999 or 1901, drawing parallels to past speculative periods, and notes that Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings ratio is comparatively low despite high earnings.