President Trump recently posted a heroic image of himself with an aircraft carrier, warplanes, and American flags, alongside a sign reading “Mission Accomplished 2026” and a jab at former President George W. Bush’s “Mission Not Accomplished 2001-2021.” Yet the reality is far different. Mr. Trump’s war in Iran, now at the six-month mark, has become a quagmire of his own making, with no clear goals, strategy, or end in sight.

Having campaigned against Mr. Bush’s “forever wars,” Mr. Trump now finds himself in the worst of both worlds: reluctant to resume an all-out bombardment despite threats, yet unable to broker a peace deal. He has no victory to claim, while the toll on the American economy and his party’s chances in the fall elections mounts. The conflict, initially predicted to last four to six weeks, drags on indefinitely.

Despite his impatience, Mr. Trump told reporters on Thursday, “We don’t want to speak to them; we’re not looking to meet or anything.” However, the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile, with only a fraction of its prewar shipping traffic, leaving oil markets in flux. Iran’s supreme leader was killed but replaced by his son, and Tehran still refuses to give up its nuclear program.

Richard N. Haass, former State Department policy planning director, called it “a fiasco,” noting that “there’s nothing to point to that will suggest either that we are better off or that the war was worth it.” Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, disagrees, arguing that “President Trump is winning” through sustained coercive pressure without major war or unacceptable agreement. The outcome remains the biggest gamble of Mr. Trump’s presidency.