Brent crude hovering above $72 a barrel and the S&P 500 index gaining momentum reflect investor optimism as U.S.-Iran peace talks resumed. Early European trading saw U.S. stock futures climb cautiously, signaling a return to risk appetite after tit-for-tat strikes disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement to halt attacks and restart negotiations reduced immediate geopolitical risks, though oil prices remain pressured by weak demand and recovering regional supply. The Nasdaq also showed strength, breaking a five-day losing streak as markets priced in potential stability. With Brent crude at $72.40 and WTI at $69.64, energy markets appear to be balancing between geopolitical uncertainty and economic fundamentals.

The peace talks follow a cycle of escalation, where U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged strikes last month, threatening supply routes critical to global oil trade. While commercial shipping is expected to resume, MUFG analyst Soojin Kim noted traffic through Hormuz remains below normal. This volatility highlights how swiftly market sentiment can shift: a single diplomatic breakthrough can ease fears of supply shocks. Investors are also monitoring upcoming jobs data for June, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path. The central bank’s recent signals have already raised expectations for tighter monetary policy, adding another layer of complexity to market dynamics.

The immediate impact of the U.S.-Iran deal underscores the fragility of energy markets. A $72 oil price is not just a number—it reflects how geopolitical risks can distort commodity valuations. For businesses reliant on oil, lower prices may ease costs, but prolonged uncertainty could delay investment. Meanwhile, equities’ rebound hinges on whether the peace process sustains or flares anew. The jobs report Thursday will be pivotal, as strong data might push the Fed to hike rates faster, counteracting the risk-off mood. For now, the market’s focus remains split between short-term diplomacy and long-term economic signals.