The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1, partially reversing gains from April and May. While financial components provided positive contributions, they were offset by weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits.

Despite the dip, the LEI is down only 0.3% over the first half of 2026, a smaller contraction than the 1.1% seen in late 2025. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager at The Conference Board, noted that while consumer spending is weakening, strong AI-related business investment is expected to support activity.

Conversely, the Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased by 0.2% in June to 114.6, with all components making positive contributions. Based on these trends and improving inflation, The Conference Board raised its 2026 y/y GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 1.9%.