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Treasury Yields Fall as Growth Fears Rise

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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U.S. Treasury yields declined in Asian trading as investors shift focus from inflation to growth risks amid Middle East tensions. The 10-year yield dropped 5.2 basis points to 4.387%, while the two-year yield fell 3.9 bps to 3.875%, according to Tradeweb data. Oil prices climbed even as bond markets priced in economic slowdown concerns.

LBBW analysts project economies on both sides of the Atlantic will see growth losses of around a quarter percentage point this year compared to previous forecasts. Morgan Stanley strategists recommend buying five-year Treasurys at 4.06% yields and betting on a steeper seven- to 30-year curve at 71 basis points. They note that energy price increases since the Middle East conflict began could further dampen growth.

Pimco's Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls argue high-quality bonds have regained their portfolio role, offering diversification and liquidity amid equity volatility. Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds saw yield curve steepening as the Bank of Japan's potential April rate hike is priced at 70% probability. State Street's Masahiko Loo suggests JGBs are near fair value with terminal rates near 1.9%.