The U.S. Justice Department filed murder and conspiracy charges against Raul Castro, citing the 1996 downing of two civilian planes linked to provocative flights over Cuba. The indictment, part of a Trump‑era effort to destabilise the island, opens the door to possible military removal of the former president.

Castro, though frail and stripped of formal power, still controls Cuba’s armed forces and has steered secret talks with U.S. officials. Months earlier, Secretary‑of‑State Marco Rubio reached out to a Castro grandson, urging a shift toward economic openness. Cuban diplomats claim Washington lacks good faith, stalling any meaningful dialogue.

For investors, a shift in U.S.–Cuba policy could unlock new markets. Sanctions that have capped Cuban exports and limited U.S. investment may ease, boosting tourism and remittances from the diaspora. Analysts warn that any change will ripple through global supply chains tied to Cuban sugar and rum, prompting firms to reassess risk exposure.

If the indictment leads to a swift policy reversal, U.S. firms eyeing Cuban manufacturing could accelerate entry, while banks may lift restrictions on Cuban‑linked transactions. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions list could shrink, signaling a broader diplomatic thaw. Market watchers will track how quickly lawmakers act to formalise any concessions.